File(s) under permanent embargo
Economic impacts of climate change on the Australian dairy sector
journal contribution
posted on 2014-01-01, 00:00 authored by K Hanslow, Don GunasekeraDon Gunasekera, B Cullen, D NewthWe analyse the economic implications of climate-driven pressures on the pasture-based dairy sector in Australia. We use an integrated assessment model that includes a climate scenario generator, a climate-biophysical response framework and an economywide analytical framework. For the climate scenario generator, we use data from the OzClim database of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation. For the climate-biophysical response framework, we use the DairyMod model with inputs of changes in climate variables from OzClim to quantify climate change effects on pasture growth and productivity. For the economywide analytical framework, we use the National Integrated Assessment Model to quantify the economic implications of these effects on the dairy sector. The simulated pattern of regional changes in dairy output is not a simple function of the changes in dairy productivity. Our results show that the relative size of productivity changes across regions affects the relative competitive advantage of dairy-producing regions. Several factors affect the regional distribution of simulated dairy-output changes, including substitution among sources of dairy output and competition for inputs like supplementary feed. An increased output in regions with moderate reductions in dairy productivity may occur because the severely climate-affected regions absorb the greatest loss in output.
History
Journal
Australian journal of agricultural and resource economicsVolume
58Issue
1Pagination
60 - 77Publisher
WileyLocation
Milton, Qld.Publisher DOI
ISSN
1364-985XeISSN
1467-8489Language
engPublication classification
C Journal article; C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journalCopyright notice
2013, AARES and WileyUsage metrics
Categories
No categories selectedLicence
Exports
RefWorks
BibTeX
Ref. manager
Endnote
DataCite
NLM
DC