gunasekera-projectedchangesin-2018.pdf (2.85 MB)
Projected changes in wet-bulb globe temperature under alternative climate scenarios
The increased levels of Greenhouse Gasses (GHGs) in the atmosphere will result in increased near-surface air temperature and absolute humidity. These two factors increasingly pose a risk of heat stress to humans. The Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is a widely used and validated index for assessing the environmental heat stress. Using the output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations of the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we calculated the global and regional changes in WBGT. Globally, the WBGT is projected to increase by 0.6–1.7 C for RCP 2.6 and 2.37–4.4 C for RCP 8.5. At the regional scale, our analysis suggests a disproportionate increase in the WBGT over northern India, China, northern Australia, Africa, Central America and Southeast Asia. An increase in WBGT has consequences not only on human health but also on social and economic factors. These consequences may be exacerbated in developing economies, which are less able to adapt to the changing environmental conditions.
History
Journal
AtmosphereVolume
9Issue
5Publisher
MDPILocation
Basel, SwitzerlanPublisher DOI
Link to full text
ISSN
2073-4433eISSN
2073-4433Language
engPublication classification
C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journalCopyright notice
2018, The AuthorsUsage metrics
Keywords
Science & TechnologyLife Sciences & BiomedicinePhysical SciencesEnvironmental SciencesMeteorology & Atmospheric SciencesEnvironmental Sciences & Ecologywet-bulb globe temperaturerepresentative concentration pathwaysheat stressHEAT-STRESSSTABILIZATIONGENERATIONMORTALITYPATHWAYHEALTHISSUECMIP5Atmospheric Sciences
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