Crash risk factors for novice motorcycle riders

Background: Motorcycle riders have the highest injury and fatality rates among all road users. This research sought in-depth understanding of crash risk factors to help in developing targeted measures to reduce motorcycle crash injuries and fatalities. Methods: We used interview data from a study of 2,399 novice motorcycle riders in Victoria, Australia from 2010 to 2012 linked with their police-recorded crash and offence data. The outcome measure was self and/or police reported crash. The association between potential risk factors and crashes was explored in multivariable logistic regression models. Results: In the multivariable analysis, riders who reported being involved in three or more near crashes had 1.74 times (95% CI 1.11–2.74) higher odds of crashing compared to riders who reported no near-crash events, and riders who participated in a pre-learner course had 1.41 times higher odds of crashing (95% CI 1.07–1.87) compared with riders who did not attend a pre-learner course. Riders who had been involved in a crash before the study had 1.58 times (95% CI 1.14–2.19) higher odds of crashing during the study period compared with riders who were not involved in a crash. Each additional month of having held a license and learner permit decreased the odds of crashing by 2%, and each additional 1,000 km of riding before the study increased the odds of crashing by 2%. Conclusion: Measures of pre-learner training and riding experience were the strongest predictors of crashing in this cohort of novice motorcycle riders. At the time of the study there was no compulsory rider training to obtain a learner permit in Victoria and no on-road courses were available. It may be plausible that riders who voluntarily participated in an unregulated pre-learner course became or remained at high risk of crash after obtaining a rider license. We suggest systematically reviewing the safety benefits of voluntary versus mandatory pre-learner and learner courses and the potential need to include on-road components.