Effect modification of greenness on the association between heat and mortality: A multi-city multi-country study

0562902 - ÚFA 2023 RIV GB eng J - Článek v odborném periodiku
Choi, H. M. - Lee, W. - Roye, D. - Heo, S. - Urban, Aleš - Entezari, A. - Vicedo-Cabrera, A.M. - Zanobetti, A. - Gasparrini, A. - Analitis, A. - Tobias, A. - Armstrong, B. - Forsberg, B. - Íñiguez, C. - Åström, C. - Ng, C.F.S. - Indermitte, E. - Lavigne, E. - Mayvaneh, F. - Acquaotta, F. - Sera, F. - Orru, H. - Kim, H. - Kyselý, Jan - Madueira, J. - Schwartz, J. - Jaakkola, J.J.K. - Katsouyanni, K. - Diaz, M. H. - Ragettli, M.S. - Hashizume, M. - Pascal, M. - Ryti, N. - Scovronick, N. - Osorio, S. - Tong, S. - Seposo, X. - Honda, Y. - Kim, Y. - Guo, Y.L. - Guo, Y. - Bell, M.L.
Effect modification of greenness on the association between heat and mortality: A multi-city multi-country study.
EBioMedicine. Roč. 84, Oct. (2022), č. článku 104251. ISSN 2352-3964. E-ISSN 2352-3964
Grant CEP: GA ČR(CZ) GA22-24920S
Institucionální podpora: RVO:68378289
Klíčová slova: Effect modification * Greenspace * Heat * Mortality
Obor OECD: Climatic research
Impakt faktor: 11.1, rok: 2022
Způsob publikování: Open access
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352396422004339?via%3Dihub

Background: Identifying how greenspace impacts the temperature-mortality relationship in urban environments is crucial, especially given climate change and rapid urbanization. However, the effect modification of greenspace on heat-related mortality has been typically focused on a localized area or single country. This study examined the heat-mortality relationship among different greenspace levels in a global setting.
Methods: We collected daily ambient temperature and mortality data for 452 locations in 24 countries and used Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) as the greenspace measurement. We used distributed lag non-linear model to estimate the heat-mortality relationship in each city and the estimates were pooled adjusting for city-specific average temperature, city-specific temperature range, city-specific population density, and gross domestic product (GDP). The effect modification of greenspace was evaluated by comparing the heat-related mortality risk for different greenspace groups (low, medium, and high), which were divided into terciles among 452 locations.
Findings: Cities with high greenspace value had the lowest heat-mortality relative risk of 1·19 (95% CI: 1·13, 1·25), while the heat-related relative risk was 1·46 (95% CI: 1·31, 1·62) for cities with low greenspace when comparing the 99th temperature and the minimum mortality temperature. A 20% increase of greenspace is associated with a 9·02% (95% CI: 8·88, 9·16) decrease in the heat-related attributable fraction, and if this association is causal (which is not within the scope of this study to assess), such a reduction could save approximately 933 excess deaths per year in 24 countries.
Interpretation: Our findings can inform communities on the potential health benefits of greenspaces in the urban environment and mitigation measures regarding the impacts of climate change.
Trvalý link: https://hdl.handle.net/11104/0335071