Title
Elicitation of Subjective Probability Distributions and Von Neumann-Morgenstern Utility Functions
Publisher
Center for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Minnesota
Abstract
In many situations, one individual (the "elicitor") would like to
discover the precise form of a subjective probability distribution or
of a von Neumann - Morgenstern utility function of another individual
(the "subject"). This paper presents a general procedure-or "scoring
rule" which can be used by the elicitor to induce the subject to reveal
a probability distribution representing the subject's beliefs
about some uncertain event. This procedure contains several other
known scoring rules as special cases. By reversing the roles of probability
and utility, this procedure can also be used to induce a risk
averse subject to reveal a utility function representing the subject's
choices in risky situations.
Previously Published Citation
Holt, C.A. Jr., (1979), "Elicitation of Subjective Probability Distributions and Von Neumann-Morgenstern Utility Functions", Discussion Paper No. 128, Center for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Minnesota.
Suggested Citation
Holt, Charles A. Jr..
(1979).
Elicitation of Subjective Probability Distributions and Von Neumann-Morgenstern Utility Functions.
Center for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Minnesota.
Retrieved from the University of Minnesota Digital Conservancy,
https://hdl.handle.net/11299/55016.