Stochastic methods for the estimation of potential seismic damage

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2002

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Askan, Ayşegül

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Due to uncertainties involved in both occurrences of earthquakes and structural responses, earthquake damage prediction has to be treated in a probabilistic manner. In this study, three stochastic methods, for the prediction of potential seismic damage to low and mid-rise reinforced concrete buildings in Turkey, are presented. A damage probability matrix (DPM) expresses what will happen to buildings, designed according to some particular set of requirements, during earthquakes of various intensities. In this study, as the first approach, "best estimate" damage probability matrices for each seismic zone are developed by combining expert opinion and the damage statistics compiled from the recent earthquakes occurred in Turkey. Second approach involves a reliability-based model, which treats the earthquake force and seismic resistance as random variables. This mmodel expresses potential seismic damage in the form of a damage rate distribution, which is a function of modified Mercalli intensity or peak ground acceleration. As the third methodology, discriminant analysis technique is utilized to carry out a statistical analysis on the damage data compiled during recent earthquakes that occurred in Turkey. Based on the classification procedure involved in this technique, the damage state probabilities corresponding to modified Mercalli intensity levels of the relevant earthquakes, are obtained. The stochastic damage profile obtained according to these three methods is expressed in terms of modified Mercalli intensity scale and the results are compared with each other.

Subject Keywords

Earthquake damage estimation, Damage probability matrix, Fragility curves, Seismic resistance index, Reliability theory, Düzce earthquake, Discriminant analysis

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/12741

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

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Citation Formats

A. Askan, “Stochastic methods for the estimation of potential seismic damage,” Middle East Technical University, 2002.