Modeling Future Ecosystem Services of Lake Beyşehir

Date

2016-08-31

Author

Bucak, Tuba
Trolle, Denise
Erdoğan, Şeyda
Çakıroğlu, Ayse İdil
Tavşanoğlu, Nihan
Bezirci, Gizem
Beklioğlu, Meryem

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Freshwater ecosystems serve various ecosystem services such as supplying water for different purposes and food as provisioning services, nitrogen retention, flood protection as regulating services and recreation as cultural services. Lake Beyşehir is the largest freshwater lake in Turkey and it is critically important in terms of supplying ecosystem services for the area including irrigation, drinking water to a certain extent, fisheries and recreation. In this study, we applied the eco-hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), to evaluate the effects of potential land use changes and the projected future climate on water and nutrient runoff of Lake Beyşehir catchment. Climate change scenarios were based on IPCC 5th main scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) derived from 2 regional climate models (GFDLESM2M and IPSL-CMA-LR) for 2 different time periods (2030s and 2060s). Outputs of eco-hydrological model and the climate models were subsequently used as input to two individual lake ecosystem models (PCLake, General Lake Model). Chlorophyll a, water level and cyanobacteria biomass was used as a proxy to determine whether Lake Beyşehir will continue to supply its ecosystem services in the future as well. Our preliminary results showed that climate change scenarios demonstrate great variability in terms of precipitation which caused higher uncertainty in predicting future water levels. In addition, increased temperature had strong effect on chlorophyll a and cyanobacteria biomass which deteriorate the water quality and may result in loss of drinking water value of Lake Beyşehir.

Subject Keywords

Lake modeling, Ecosystem services, SWAT, Chlorophyll a

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/78479
http://eebst.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/EEBST2016_Abstract_Book.pdf

Conference Name

3rd Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Symposium, Turkey (31 Ağustos - 01 Eylül 2016)

Collections

Department of Biology, Conference / Seminar

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Citation Formats

T. Bucak et al., “Modeling Future Ecosystem Services of Lake Beyşehir,” presented at the 3rd Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Symposium, Turkey (31 Ağustos - 01 Eylül 2016), Ankara, Türkiye, 2016, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/78479.