Projecting the Future Prevalence of Childhood Cancer In Ontario using Microsimulation Modeling
Department:
Health Policy, Management and Evaluation
Issue Date:
Nov-2022
Abstract (summary):
Children diagnosed with cancer have lifelong health care needs. The prevalence of childhood cancer has been steadily increasing in Ontario, though no prevalence projections exist to anticipate future health care system demands. A population-based, open-cohort microsimulation model was constructed to project the limited-duration prevalence of childhood cancer in Ontario, by cancer type, for years 2020-2040. Model inputs were derived from health administrative databases, provincial population data sources, and external literature. Beginning with 1970, the model population was updated annually with births, deaths, net migration, and incident cases of childhood cancer. Fifty Monte Carlo simulations were run to vary model inputs and generate median health outcomes with 95% credible intervals (CI). Between 2020 and 2040, annual incidence counts are projected to increase by 33%. In 2040, 25171 (95% CI: 24267-26975) individuals are projected to reside in Ontario who were diagnosed in 1970 or later, 87% of which will be 5-year survivors.
Permanent Link:
https://hdl.handle.net/1807/125045
Content Type:
Thesis
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