Understanding declining voter turnout in Canada and other late-modern capitalist democracies: a contemporary analysis of T.H. Marshall's Social citizenship
Date
2014-12-22
Authors
Stewart, Lois Neva
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Abstract
In this research, I undertake an analysis of the relationship between aggregate voter turnout and income inequality within late-modern capitalist democracies to better understand the problem of declining voter turnout in these societies. I analyse this relationship at the sub-national level using provincial-level Canadian data and at the national level through a sample of twenty-one nations. At both levels, cross-sectional time-series regression analyses of pooled data are applied. Findings are interpreted through a citizenship lens; specifically the work of T.H. Marshall (1950) and Esping-Andersen (1990), as both social and political inclusion are fundamental and constitutive elements of citizenship. Initial findings include a statistically significant negative relationship between income inequality and voter turnout, for both provincial and federal general elections in Canada (1976-2011); this relationship is also found at the national level in a sample of older democracies (1980-2013). The relationship holds using various measures of income inequality including the Gini coefficient and a range of income ratios. However, once time is controlled for in the model this relationship seems to disappear. This suggests a lack of support for the theory that income inequality has a direct impact on participation in the exercise of political power. Rather, a more fundamental factor or factors seem to be causing these societal shifts. I discuss alternate ways of understanding this relationship, including how declining voter turnout and income inequality might be related to the broader socio-political and economic changes associated with economic globalisation and the global spread of neo-liberal fiscal policies. I conclude that to better understand the relationship between voter turnout and income inequality further research is required.
Description
Keywords
voter turnout, social citizenship, income inequality