How political leaders shape international rivalries: a psychological study of resilience and variability in Chilean-Bolivian and Chilean-Peruvian relations
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Date
31/07/2021Item status
Restricted AccessEmbargo end date
31/07/2022Author
Thiers Huerta, Maria Consuelo
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Abstract
This research seeks to set out an understanding of the life-cycle of interstate rivalries.
Specifically, it looks at the Chilean-Peruvian and Chilean-Bolivian rivalries, focusing
on decision-makers' beliefs and emotions regarding the conflict. The main objective
is to shed light on the reasons for these rivalries’ endurance and variation from 1990
to 2019. To answer the research questions, this work adopts a political-psychological
and agent-centred approach to analyse the psychology of decision-makers, and uses
qualitative and quantitative methods to analyse political leaders’ rhetoric. It employs
a case study process-tracing method to examine socio-psychological collective beliefs
and emotions present in foreign policy elites to shed light on the enduring
characteristic of these rivalries. In order to understand the variation that these
rivalries have undergone over time, this research uses a content analysis technique
within the Operational Code Analysis framework to assess and compare leaders’
beliefs. The data employed in this research is retrieved from interviews conducted
with foreign policy elites in Bolivia, Chile and Peru, as well as interviews found in
media outlets, speeches, official websites, and official documents.
This research contributes to knowledge in three ways. First, it makes an empirical
contribution by applying political-psychological concepts to help shed light on the
dynamics of two rivalries that have not previously been studied using this framework.
In doing so, it advances the understanding of foreign policy elites’ emotional and
cognitive variables involved in both the continuation and variability of the Chilean-Bolivian and Chilean-Peruvian rivalries. Second, this research also makes a theoretical
contribution to the broader study of interstate rivalries in International Relations, as
it offers an alternative explanation to help understand political decisions that cannot
be fully explained starting from traditional state-centred approaches. This thesis also
advances the literature on leadership analysis as it confirms that decision-makers
play a crucial role in shaping both the endurance and the variation of rivalries. Finally,
by developing, implementing, and applying a content analysis tool to assess political leaders’ beliefs in the Spanish language, this thesis also adds a methodological
contribution. In this sense, this work constitutes a step forward towards advancing
research in the Foreign Policy Analysis field to include non-western contexts.