Graduate Thesis Or Dissertation
 

A computer simulation model of land use dynamics in the State of Oregon

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https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/graduate_thesis_or_dissertations/08612r715

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  • The dynamics of land use in the State of Oregon are simulated on a digital computer. The introductory chapter outlines the complex nature of the problems facing the post-industrial society and argues that the scientific and professional estates share in the responsibility for public policy formulation. The second chapter .presents an historical perspective of land use in Oregon, from the indigenous Indians of the eighteenth century to the present-day Land Conservation and Development Commission. Chapter three outlines in detail the systems simulation methodology employed in the formulation and testing of the Oregon State Simulation Model (OSSIM). The development of the OSSIM, a large scale socio-economic model of Oregon, was one element of an interdisciplinary project sponsored by the Rockefeller Foundation entitled "Man's Activities as related to Environmental Quality." Systems simulation is viewed as an iterative problem investigation process that includes problem definition, simulation model development and testing, and application of the results in a policy setting. The chapter concludes with a brief description of the seven OSSIM components: Demographic; Economic; Land Use; Transportation; Energy; Pollution; and Government Revenue. In chapter four, the structure and dynamics of the land use component of OSSIM are presented. The land in each of three regions of Oregon (the Willamette Valley, the coastal region and eastern Oregon) is assigned to one of eight use categories: residential, further disaggregated into three household density classes; agricultural; forest; industrial/commercial; open space/wilderness; and unused land (a residual). The demand for housing (and residential land) is driven by the demographic component of OSSIM. Housing stock is updated to keep pace with the changing demand, the land being supplied from the agricultural and forest use categories. Agricultural land is treated as a factor of production in the agricultural sector model. Speculation in the land market is modeled in detail, with the rising speculative value of agricultural land augmenting farm capital formation. Zoning, land taxation and the systems development charge are typical policy variables. Verification, validation and sensitivity testing of the land use model is discussed in chapter five. Chapter six presents conclusions drawn from the work as a whole, including those relevant to: the utility of large scale simulations of socio-economic systems; land use policy in Oregon; interdisciplinary research.
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