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A Mathematical Model to Predict the Spread of COVID-19 in a Population and Evaluate the Effectiveness of Containment Strategies

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Bokharaie,  VS
Department Physiology of Cognitive Processes, Max Planck Institute for Biological Cybernetics, Max Planck Society;

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Citation

Bokharaie, V. (submitted). A Mathematical Model to Predict the Spread of COVID-19 in a Population and Evaluate the Effectiveness of Containment Strategies.


Cite as: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0005-E506-2
Abstract
The available data on the spread of COVID-19 in China has been used to estimate the parameters of epidemiological models in a population stratified based on age distribution. The models can then be adapted and used for other countries or populations with different age distributions. The resulting models can be used to calculate the trajectory of the spread of the disease in various age groups in different countries. More importantly, it can be used to predict the effects of different containment strategies on the spread of COVID-19.