COVID-19 in South Africa: outbreak despite interventions

Schröder, Malte; Bossert, Andreas; Kersting, Moritz; Aeffner, Sebastian; Coetzee, Justin; Timme, Marc; Schlueter, Jan

doi:10.1038/s41598-021-84487-0

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COVID-19 in South Africa: outbreak despite interventions

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Bossert, Andreas
Group Next generation mobility, Department of Dynamics of Complex Fluids, Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Max Planck Society;

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Kersting, Moritz
Group Next generation mobility, Department of Dynamics of Complex Fluids, Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Max Planck Society;

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Schlueter, Jan
Group Next generation mobility, Department of Dynamics of Complex Fluids, Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Max Planck Society;

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引用

Schröder, M., Bossert, A., Kersting, M., Aeffner, S., Coetzee, J., Timme, M., & Schlueter, J. (2021). COVID-19 in South Africa: outbreak despite interventions. Scientific Reports, 11:. doi:10.1038/s41598-021-84487-0.

引用: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0008-1A6E-1

要旨

The future dynamics of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in African countries is
largely unclear. Simultaneously, required strengths of intervention measures are strongly debated
because containing COVID-19 in favor of the weak health care system largely conflicts with socioeconomic hardships. Here we analyze the impact of interventions on outbreak dynamics for South
Africa, exhibiting the largest case numbers across sub-saharan Africa, before and after their national
lockdown. Past data indicate strongly reduced but still supracritical growth after lockdown. Moreover,
large-scale agent-based simulations given different future scenarios for the Nelson Mandela Bay
Municipality with 1.14 million inhabitants, based on detailed activity and mobility survey data of
about 10% of the population, similarly suggest that current containment may be insufficient to not
overload local intensive care capacity. Yet, enduring, slightly stronger or more specific interventions,
combined with sufficient compliance, may constitute a viable option for interventions for South Africa.