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Journal Article

Optimal temperature overshoot profile found by limiting global sea level rise as a lower-cost climate target

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Li,  Chao
Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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Marotzke,  Jochem       
Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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Citation

Li, C., Held, H., Hokamp, S., & Marotzke, J. (2020). Optimal temperature overshoot profile found by limiting global sea level rise as a lower-cost climate target. Science Advances, 6: eaaw9490. doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaw9490.


Cite as: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0005-75CE-0
Abstract
The global temperature targets of limiting surface warming to below 2.0°C or even to 1.5°C have been widely accepted
through the Paris Agreement. However, limiting surface warming has previously been proven insufficient
to control sea level rise (SLR). Here, we explore a sea level target that is closer to coastal planning and associated
adaptation measures than a temperature target. We find that a sea level target provides an optimal temperature
overshoot profile through a physical constraint of SLR. The allowable temperature overshoot leads to lower
mitigation costs and more effective long-term sea level stabilization compared to a temperature target leading
to the same SLR by 2200. With the same mitigation cost as the temperature target, a SLR target could bring surface
warming back to the targeted temperatures within this century, lead to a reduction of surface warming of the next
century, and reduce and slow down SLR in the centuries thereafter.