sustainability-12-00777-v2.pdf (6.74 MB)
Supporting electrification policy in fragile states: a conflict-adjusted geospatial least cost approach for Afghanistan
journal contribution
posted on 2020-11-30, 14:51 authored by Alexandros Korkovelos, Dimitrios Mentis, Morgan Bazilian, Mark HowellsMark Howells, Anwar Saraj, Sulaiman Fayez Hotaki, Fanny Missfeldt-RingiusRoughly two billion people live in areas that regularly suffer from conflict, violence, and instability. Infrastructure development in those areas is very difficult to implement and fund. As an example, electrification systems face major challenges such as ensuring the security of the workforce or reliability of power supply. This paper presents electrification results from an explorative methodology, where the costs and risks of conflict are explicitly considered in a geo-spatial, least cost electrification model. Discount factor and risk premium adjustments are introduced per technology and location in order to examine changes in electrification outlooks in Afghanistan. Findings indicate that the cost optimal electrification mix is very sensitive to the local context; yet, certain patterns emerge. Urban populations create a strong consumer base for grid electricity, in some cases even under higher risk. For peri-urban and rural areas, electrification options are more sensitive to conflict-induced risk variation. In this paper, we identify these inflection points, quantify key decision parameters, and present policy recommendations for universal electrification of Afghanistan by 2030.
Funding
This paper was enriched by findings deriving from research activity funded by the World Bank under the contract number 7180875. Liaison with Afghan analysts was supported by DFID/UKAID under the project “Energy and Economic Growth (A0534A); National Energy Planning and Policy Support for the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals”. This is part of the Applied Research Program on Energy for Economic Growth (EEG), led by Oxford Policy Management.
History
School
- Social Sciences and Humanities
Department
- Geography and Environment
Published in
SustainabilityVolume
12Issue
3Publisher
MDPI AGVersion
- VoR (Version of Record)
Rights holder
© The AuthorsPublisher statement
This is an Open Access Article. It is published by MDPI under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence (CC BY 4.0). Full details of this licence are available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Acceptance date
2020-01-15Publication date
2020-01-21Copyright date
2020ISSN
2071-1050eISSN
2071-1050Publisher version
Language
- en
Depositor
Prof Mark Howells. Deposit date: 18 November 2020Article number
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