Detailed analysis of spatial–temporal variability of rainfall erosivity and erosivity density in the central and southern Pannonian Basin

Estimation of rainfall erosivity (RE) and erosivity density (ED) is essential for understanding the complex relationships between hydrological and soil erosion processes. The main objective of this study is to assess the spatial–temporal trends and variability of the RE and ED in the central and southern Pannonian Basin by using station observations and gridded datasets. To assess RE and ED, precipitation data for 14 meteorological stations, 225 grid points. and an erosion model consisting of daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall for the period of 1961–2014 were used. Annual RE and ED based on station data match spatially variable patterns of precipitation, with higher values in the southwest (2100 MJ·mm·ha⁻¹·h⁻¹) and southeast (1650 MJ·mm·ha⁻¹·h⁻¹) of the study area, but minimal values in the northern part (700 MJ·mm·ha⁻¹·h⁻¹). On the other hand, gridded datasets display more detailed RE and ED spatial–temporal variability, with the values ranging from 250 to 2800 MJ·mm·ha⁻¹·h⁻¹. The identified trends are showing increasing values of RE (ranging between 0.20 and 21.17 MJ·mm·ha⁻¹·h⁻¹) and ED (ranging between 0.01 and 0.03 MJ·ha⁻¹·h⁻¹) at the annual level. This tendency is also observed for autumn RE (from 5.55 to 0.37 MJ·mm·ha⁻¹·h⁻¹) and ED (from 0.05 to 0.01 MJ·ha⁻¹·h⁻¹), as for spring RE (from 1.00 to 0.01 MJ·mm·ha⁻¹·h⁻¹) and ED (from 0.04 to 0.01 MJ·ha⁻¹·h⁻¹), due to the influence of the large-scale processes of climate variability, with North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) being the most prominent. These increases may cause a transition to a higher erosive class in the future, thus raising concerns about this type of hydro-meteorological hazard in this part of the Pannonian Basin. The present analysis identifies seasons and places of greatest erosion risk, which is the starting point for implementing suitable mitigation measures at local to regional scales.