Evidence for a new model of the complex interrelationship of ball possession, physical intensity and performance in elite soccer

Background: How the physical metrics, especially physical intensity, and possession interact with each other, and subsequently combine to influence performance remains opaque. Therefore, we investigated the interrelationship of possession, physical metrics, and team performance in elite soccer.

Methods: Four seasons of a top European league were used to derive 80 team league performances (points), together with possession and physical data. Physical metrics were absolute distances (m) during the whole match and ball‐in‐play, and rates of distance covered (m⋅min⁻¹) as the index of physical intensity, notably when in‐possession/out‐of‐possession, in total and within five speed categories. Interrelationships of possession, physical metrics, possession, and performance were assessed with Pearson's correlations and mediation analysis.

Results: Overall possession (r = 0.794) and time out‐of‐possession within the defensive third (r = −0.797) were most strongly correlated with performance. The strong relationships between in‐possession distances and performance appeared coincidental due to greater time in‐possession. Physical intensity had a complex relationship with possession and performance, with opposite relationships according to possession status: lower physical intensity when in‐possession and higher physical intensity when out‐of‐possession were associated with possession and performance. Mediation analysis revealed the direct, independent importance of possession for team performance; however, the association of physical intensity with performance was largely (>79%) mediated by possession.

Conclusion: Based on these findings, we propose a novel model of the interrelationships between possession, physical intensity, and performance, whereby higher possession is the largest, direct contributor toward enhanced team performance, with lower physical intensity in‐possession a consequence of higher possession, but greater physical intensity when out‐of‐possession a cause of increased possession.