SSRN-id3002673.pdf (872.54 kB)
A briefing on the UK's choice of trade arrangements outside of the EU
online resource
posted on 2017-08-11, 13:21 authored by Mustapha Douch, Huw EdwardsHuw Edwards, Alistair MilneAlistair MilneThis briefing note, prepared by Loughborough University for the ESRC UK in a Changing Europe Initiative, reviews the choices for UK trade arrangements after Brexit. It draws on public domain research by leading UK trade researchers and on the presentations and discussions at a conference, hosted by Loughborough University at our Queen Elizabeth Park, Stratford, London Campus, on Dec 9th, 2016. It reviews the economics arguments for free trade, the institutional arrangements that support free-trade and summarises some key statistics about UK external trade. It also argues that the presentation of Brexit as a binary choice between ‘soft’ (retaining current trade arrangements with the EU) and ‘hard’ (jettisoning all existing trade arrangements in order to start out afresh) is a dangerous oversimplification. This ignores the realities of negotiation with the EU and other trade partners (the choice is not all or nothing, there is opportunity in negotiation to agree anything across a wide range of potential outcomes). The key policy challenge is choosing between a slow and managed Brexit, extended over a period of five to seven years, ensuring low costs of trade between the UK and the EU and avoiding substantial economic costs, or a rapid Brexit which is likely to reduce GDP by between 5 and 8 percent.
Funding
This paper and the associated conference were financed by a grant from the ESRC UK in a Changing Europe commissioning fund.
History
School
- Business and Economics
Department
- Economics
Citation
DOUCH, M., EDWARDS, T.H. and MILNE, A., 2017. A briefing on the UK's choice of trade arrangements outside of the EU.Publisher
ESRC UK in a Changing EuropeVersion
- VoR (Version of Record)
Publisher statement
This work is made available according to the conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) licence. Full details of this licence are available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/Publication date
2017Notes
This is an updated version of the briefing note from our conference, held at Loughborough University in London, 9th December 2016, on 'International Trade Agreements After Brexit: Establishing The Facts', sponsored by the ESRC's UK in a Changing Europe InitiativeLanguage
- en