[en] The first aim of this study is to determine if changes in precipitation and more specifically in convective precipitation are projected in a warmer climate over Belgium. The second aim is to evaluate if these changes are dependent on the convective scheme used. For this purpose, the regional climate model Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) was forced by two general circulation models (NorESM1-M and MIROC5) with five convective schemes (namely: two versions of the Bechtold schemes, the Betts–Miller–Janjić scheme, the Kain–Fritsch scheme, and the modified Tiedtke scheme) in order to assess changes in future precipitation quantities/distributions and associated uncertainties. In a warmer climate (using RCP8.5), our model simulates a small increase of convective precipitation, but lower than the anomalies and the interannual variability over the current climate, since all MAR experiments simulate a stronger warming in the upper troposphere than in the lower atmospheric layers, favoring more stable conditions. No change is also projected in extreme precipitation nor in the ratio of convective precipitation. While MAR is more sensitive to the convective scheme when forced by GCMs than when forced by ERA-Interim over the current climate, projected changes from all MAR experiments compare well.
Research center :
UR SPHERES, ULiège
Disciplines :
Earth sciences & physical geography
Author, co-author :
Doutreloup, Sébastien ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie
Kittel, Christoph ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie
Wyard, Coraline
Belleflamme, Alexandre
Amory, Charles ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie
Erpicum, Michel ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie
Fettweis, Xavier ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie
Language :
English
Title :
Precipitation Evolution over Belgium by 2100 and Sensitivity to Convective Schemes Using the Regional Climate Model MAR
Publication date :
12 June 2019
Journal title :
Atmosphere
eISSN :
2073-4433
Publisher :
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI), Basel, Switzerland
Special issue title :
Special Issue "Precipitation and Climate Change: Accomplishments and Challenges"
Volume :
10
Issue :
321
Peer reviewed :
Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi
Tags :
CÉCI : Consortium des Équipements de Calcul Intensif
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