Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/2440/136925
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Type: Journal article
Title: Damage Trajectories in Systemic Sclerosis Using Group-Based Trajectory Modeling
Author: Barbacki, A.
Baron, M.
Wang, M.
Zhang, Y.
Stevens, W.
Sahhar, J.
Proudman, S.
Nikpour, M.
Man, A.
Australian Scleroderma Interest Group and the Canadian Scleroderma Research Group,
Citation: Arthritis Care and Research, 2023; 75(3):640-647
Publisher: Wiley
Issue Date: 2023
ISSN: 2151-464X
2151-4658
Statement of
Responsibility: 
Ariane Barbacki, Murray Baron, Mianbo Wang, Yuqing Zhang, Wendy Stevens, Joanne Sahhar, Susanna Proudman, Mandana Nikpour, and Ada Man, on behalf of the Australian Scleroderma Interest Group and the Canadian Scleroderma Research Group
Abstract: Objective. Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is an autoimmune disease characterized by progressive organ damage, which can be measured using the Scleroderma Clinical Trials Consortium Damage Index (SCTC-DI). We aimed to identify whether distinct trajectories of damage accrual exist and to determine which variables are associated with different trajectory groups. Methods. Incident cases of SSc (<2 years) were identified in the Australian Scleroderma Interest Group and Canadian Scleroderma Research Group prospective registries. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to identify SCTC-DI trajectories over the cohort’s first 5 annual visits. Baseline variables associated with trajectory membership in a univariate analysis were examined in multivariable models. Results. A total of 410 patients were included. Three trajectory groups were identified: low (54.6%), medium (36.2%), and high (10.3%) damage. Patients with faster damage accrual had higher baseline SCTC-DI scores. Older age (odds ratio [OR] 1.57 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.18–2.10]), male sex (OR 2.55 [95% CI 1.10–5.88]), diffuse disease (OR 6.7 [95% CI 2.57–17.48]), tendon friction rubs (OR 5.4 [95% CI 1.86–15.66]), and elevated C-reactive protein level (OR 1.98 [95% CI 1.49–2.63]) increased the odds of being in the high-damage group versus the reference (low damage), whereas White ethnicity (OR 0.31 [95% CI 0.12–0.75]) and anticentromere antibodies (OR 0.24 [95% CI 0.07–0.77]) decreased the odds. Conclusion. We identified 3 trajectories of damage accrual in a combined incident SSc cohort. Several characteristics increased the odds of belonging to worse trajectories. These findings may be helpful in recognizing patients in whom early aggressive treatment is necessary.
Keywords: Australian Scleroderma Interest Group and the Canadian Scleroderma Research Group
Humans
Scleroderma, Localized
Scleroderma, Systemic
Prospective Studies
Canada
Australia
Male
Description: First published: 28 February 2022
Rights: © 2022 American College of Rheumatology
DOI: 10.1002/acr.24873
Grant ID: http://purl.org/au-research/grants/nhmrc/GNT1176538
Published version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/acr.24873
Appears in Collections:Medicine publications

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