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https://hdl.handle.net/2440/92867
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Type: | Journal article |
Title: | How interactions between animal movement and landscape processes modify local range dynamics and extinction risk |
Author: | Fordham, D. Shoemaker, K. Schumaker, N. Akçakaya, H. Clisby, N. Brook, B. |
Citation: | Biology Letters, 2014; 10(5):20140198-1-20140198-5 |
Publisher: | Royal Society Publishing |
Issue Date: | 2014 |
ISSN: | 1744-9561 1744-957X |
Statement of Responsibility: | Damien A. Fordham, Kevin T. Shoemaker, Nathan H. Schumaker, H. Reşit Akçakaya, Nathan Clisby, Barry W. Brook |
Abstract: | Forecasts of range dynamics now incorporate many of the mechanisms and interactions that drive species distributions. However, connectivity continues to be simulated using overly simple distance-based dispersal models with little consideration of how the individual behaviour of dispersing organisms interacts with landscape structure (functional connectivity). Here, we link an individual-based model to a niche-population model to test the implications of this omission. We apply this novel approach to a turtle species inhabiting wetlands which are patchily distributed across a tropical savannah, and whose persistence is threatened by two important synergistic drivers of global change: predation by invasive species and overexploitation. We show that projections of local range dynamics in this study system change substantially when functional connectivity is modelled explicitly. Accounting for functional connectivity in model simulations causes the estimate of extinction risk to increase, and predictions of range contraction to slow. We conclude that models of range dynamics that simulate functional connectivity can reduce an important source of bias in predictions of shifts in species distributions and abundances, especially for organisms whose dispersal behaviours are strongly affected by landscape structure. |
Keywords: | dispersal; metapopulation; global change; individual-based model; population viability analysis; species distribution |
Rights: | © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved. |
DOI: | 10.1098/rsbl.2014.0198 |
Grant ID: | http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/DP1096427 http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/FT100100200 http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/FS110200051 |
Published version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2014.0198 |
Appears in Collections: | Aurora harvest 2 Earth and Environmental Sciences publications |
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