A dynamic model of COVID-19: contagion and implications of isolation enforcement
Ver/
Fecha
2020Versión
Acceso abierto / Sarbide irekia
Tipo
Documento de trabajo / Lan gaiak
Impacto
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nodoi-noplumx
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Resumen
We present a dynamic model that produces day-to-day changes in key variables due to the COVID-19 contagion: the number of ever infected people, currently infected, deaths, healed, and infected people who require hospitalization. The model is carefully calibrated to Spanish data and we conduct simulation exercises to study the role of isolation measures to contain the virus spread. We find that v ...
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We present a dynamic model that produces day-to-day changes in key variables due to the COVID-19 contagion: the number of ever infected people, currently infected, deaths, healed, and infected people who require hospitalization. The model is carefully calibrated to Spanish data and we conduct simulation exercises to study the role of isolation measures to contain the virus spread. We find that virus containment from isolation exhibits increasing returns. Our model simulations show that the State of Alarm intervention of the Spanish government on March 14th, 2020 reduces deaths by almost 85%, and lowers the maximum number of infected people who need daily hospitalization by a factor of 1/12. The simulations also indicate that both the timing and the intensity of the isolation enforcement are key for the evolution of the virus spread and the smoothing of the hospitalization needs. [--]
Materias
Covid-19,
Dynamic model,
Contagion,
Isolation enforcement
Serie
Documentos de Trabajo DE - ES Lan Gaiak /
2001
Departamento
Universidad Pública de Navarra. Departamento de Economía /
Nafarroako Unibertsitate Publikoa. Ekonomia Saila /
Universidad Pública de Navarra/Nafarroako Unibertsitate Publikoa. Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE