Reckless driving in Portugal: the deterrent impact of increased penalties on traffic accidents

Abstract

Portugal is among the few OECD countries that are often cited as examples every time traffic statistics are published. Unfortunately, the reason is that it tops the charts on accident and mortality figures. Also unfortunate is that the underlying causes remain a matter of speculation. This paper is the first systematic look at traffic policy in Portugal. It is the first of three parts1 of a government-funded effort at sponsoring an empirical analysis of Portuguese policy on road mortality. Given that temporal statistics on traffic accidents have only recently begun to be collected, we are limited to traffic policies that have been implemented in the 1990s. We are also limited to aggregate data, given that there is no systematic collection on individual-level data in Portugal. Specifically, we examine the impact of a sentencing policy that raised the statutory penalties for reckless driving and other traffic offences in the mid 1990s. In 1995, Portugal ranked second only to Hungary in fatality rates on motorways (Page 2001). Were Portuguese drivers deterred by this increase in the severity? To what extent is this policy change associated with a reduction in the accident rate resulting in injury? It has become commonplace in criminology, especially among European criminologists (Tonry 2005), to almost expect an absence of a relationship between criminal acts and punishment, thus, of course contradicting deterrence theory.