Economic analysis of the regional effects of grain-based ethanol production on the competitiveness of fed cattle producers in Eastern and Western Canada

This thesis investigates the regional impacts that increased grain based ethanol production has the competitiveness of fed cattle producers in Eastern and Western Canada. A simulation model solves for the price of feed grains in Eastern and Western Canada and the United States. Fed Cattle Producer Surplus values are calculated as a baseline by which scenario results are compared. Two scenarios are tested by the model, both applying increased ethanol production to the 2002 base year. Results show that 2008 ethanol production increases the price for feed grains in all three regions of the model by between 95% and 100%. Applying the projected ethanol production for 2015 to the model produces feed grain increases of greater than 200%.