Understanding how Odonates Respond to Global Change; a Cross-Continental Analysis

Abstract

Global change profoundly alters biological communities and increases species extinction rates. Recent reports show that odonate species (dragonflies and damselflies) are declining globally, however, odonates can also respond strongly to climate and land use change through shifts in range and phenology - i.e., the timing of life history events. Understanding how and when species respond to rapid environmental change is critical to address conservation risks in a timely way. I assembled a dataset of ~2 million odonate records between 1901 and 2021 and investigated a series of research questions about odonate persistence within historically occupied regions, how species respond across continents, and mechanisms leading to these responses. I discovered that non-target effects of pesticides interacted with temperature increases, leading to higher rates of odonate declines across the United States. Species with greater capacities in shifting their range northward may be more robust to impacts of global change (Chapter 2). Converging across Europe and North America, stronger range limit shifts were associated with stronger shifts in emergence phenology towards earlier spring dates, even though land use histories are highly divergent among regions. It is temperature variability and range geography, determinants of habitat conditions to which species are exposed, rather than ecological traits, that facilitated or hindered range shifts (Chapter 3). Temperature variability interacted with pesticide applications to hinder persistence or establishment in new areas that were otherwise climatically suitable, providing further evidence of impacts of extreme weather to insect declines. Tests of methods commonly used to predict species' distributions under future climate change (Species Distribution Models) revealed that species most likely to decline were also less likely to be well modeled, in terms of their temporal transferability (Chapter 4). This work deepens knowledge of spatial and temporal interspecific variation in species distributions as humans continue to reshape the Earth's ecosystems and climatic processes. This thesis can help improve species-specific conservation planning for species that decline in the face of anthropogenic activities.