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http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/14601
Título: | Synergy between land use and climate change increases future risk in Amazon forests |
Autor: | Le Page, Yannick Morton, Douglas Hartin, Corinne Bond-Lamberty, Ben Cardoso Pereira, José Miguel Hurtt, George Asrar, Ghassem |
Palavras-chave: | land use climate change fire risk Amazon forests |
Data: | 2017 |
Editora: | European Geosciences Union |
Citação: | Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1237–1246, 2017 |
Resumo: | Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest’s future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climatedriven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change |
Peer review: | yes |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/14601 |
DOI: | https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1237-2017 |
Aparece nas colecções: | CEF - Artigos de Revistas |
Ficheiros deste registo:
Ficheiro | Descrição | Tamanho | Formato | |
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REP-LePage-esd-8-1237-2017.pdf | 1,93 MB | Adobe PDF | Ver/Abrir |
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