債務危機克服に健闘する小国アイルランド－現況の分析と経済再建の見通し－

Abstract

The Euro-zone has been facing over the past three years a serious banking and fiscal crisis in several member states. The EU and IMF had to extend emergency bailout measures to Greece, Ireland and Portugal in order to contain the spread of the crisis. Ireland has attained remarkable economic development during 1990s through to early 2000s and was called the ' Celtic Tiger'. Will this small island country succeed in the economic recovery? In search for an answer I traveled to Dublin in September 2013. I talked with several government officials in charge of structural reform, an economist and well informed citizens. The following offers my findings and conclusion. Though Ireland joined the EC in 1973, it was ranked as a member of the poor group in the Community till mid 1980s. However, in late 1980s the picture had begun to change. Putting focus on the emerging digital revolution and the accelerating globalisation of the economy, Ireland allured US multinationals with a high-technology edge onto its soil by offering an attractive business environment such as low corporate tax, well educated human resources, comparatively low labour costs and an advanced communication network. This strategy proved to be quite successful. By the mid 1990s major American multinationals in finance, medicine, computer technology and software set up their subsidiaries in Ireland to promote business on the enlarged EU market. Thus the island country jumped to one of the leaders of the post-industrial era in Europe. From the early 1990s through to 2007 Irish economy continuously attained a high growth rate owing to the expansion of exports both of goods and services. Its GDP per capita overtook that of Britain, and the country joined the club of the rich in Europe. With near full-employment and raised wages, people enjoyed improved living standard and rushed to purchase houses. Banks fanned this boom by offering mortgages with generous terms. The happy days did not last long. The Lehman Shock in 2008 hit Ireland directly. The export boom came to an end. A lot of companies went bust and many people lost their jobs. Most damaging was the collapse of the property and housing bubble. The mortgage loans recklessly inflated by banks turned to bad debt, and both large and local banks became insolvent. In order to prevent a total collapse of money flow the Irish government guaranteed the loans by the failed banks. Because of the sheer scale of the bad loans, banks had to increase lending from the government. Thus the banking crisis led to the fiscal crisis. In late 2010 the EU and the IMF extended to Ireland an 85 billion-Euro emergency bailout. Under the new government formed after the general election in early 2011, Ireland has shown a remarkable national integrity. The Fiscal Pact agreed with the EU and IMF obligated Ireland to a strict enactment of thrift measures. Despite the hardship caused by the recession and high unemployment, people supported the Pact through the referendum in June 2011. Over the past two and half years the Irish economy has attained a considerable improvement. Exports have started to grow and in 2012 its GDP recovered growth for the first time since the crisis had begun. Reflecting this progress the yield of Irish government bond was lowered, and in the beginning of 2013 the sovereign bond returned to the international security market. The Department of Finance is convinced that by the end of 2013 the Irish bond will fully come back to the market and Ireland will get out of the EU・IMF programme. Prime Minister Enda Kenny confirmed in mid October that Ireland was on track to exit the strict bailout programme on 15 December and that the economic emergency would be over. The most difficult task yet to be tackled is to reduce unemployment, in particular, to provide longterm jobless people with new working places. The OECD expressed concern about the continuing high jobless rate and called for the government to employ decisive measures. However, in order to produce job opportunities a sustained economic growth is indispensable. Because of the characteristic structure of the Irish industry, growth largely relies upon outside economic factors such as the USA and the EU. In the meantime the early launch of the EU's banking union could help Ireland by easing the burden of paying back the huge amount of state debt. Some economists estimate that this payback burden would delay the recovery of the Irish economy by five years. After the visit to Dublin I have come to believe that Ireland's reform effort will succeed in near future and the country will once again show us its legendary vigour.