Penguin population models for Robben Island
Working Paper
2010
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University of Cape Town
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Abstract
As an initial illustrative exercise, a population model for Robben Island penguins,
which includes dependency of reproductive success and survival rate on pelagic
fish abundance, is fitted to moult count information for the colony. The results
indicate a strong dependence of adult penguin survival rate on sardine abundance
west of Cape Agulhas. However, the logistic transformation used to ensure respect
of biological constraints on these demographic parameters leads to some
problems in extending the approach to Bayesian estimation. Further work will
explore use of the beta distribution and the incorporation of further data for the
penguin population in the fitting process.
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Reference:
Robinson, W. & Butterworth, D. (2010). Penguin population models for Robben Island.