Understanding student travel preferences in Mahikeng: A hybrid choice modelling approach within the theory of planned behaviour

Mokwena, Ofentse Hlulani

Understanding student travel preferences in Mahikeng: A hybrid choice modelling approach within the theory of planned behaviour

Master Thesis

2018

Abstract

University student mobility is not reflected in the National Learner Transport Policy although some formal operators make provisions for identifiable post-school learners. South African universities do not accommodate the majority of students and they tend to have scattered campuses and residences. Only a few (6/26) public universities have contracts with scheduled bus and shuttle services specifically for students. Literature reveals that the characteristics of university student mobility are distinct from the general population. A segment specific approach to redress the potentially problematic results of aggregation could guide the treatment and inclusion of post-matric mobility needs in the National Learner Transport Policy. Research Problem In the broader sense of university student mobility, the level of service preferences of students is unknown in South Africa, or poorly specified in order for appropriate services to be developed. This study presents evidence of behavioural heterogeneity in the context of university student travel behaviour. It fills a policy and research gap by exploring university student travel behaviour and making a unique contribution to stated choice literature and applications in Africa. Hypothesis Tested Two hypotheses are tested. First, students have unique compositions of behaviour influencing their intention to use bus and minibus taxi. Secondly, there are level of service (LOS) preference differences between students who have high, medium or low intent to use any public transport mode. Methodology In navigating toward these hypotheses, the Theory of Planned Behaviour is used to theoretically reflect student behavioural inclinations toward bus and minibus taxi services in Mahikeng. In order to represent the choices students make between two modes the Hybrid Choice Modelling framework is adopted and applied. Therefore the hypotheses mentioned above are tested by means of grouping student responses based on a certain level of intention to use a mode, namely: high (P), neutral (N) or low (Z). To supplement the intention construct, perceived control to use bus or minibus taxi is also used to group university student level of service preferences. Behaviour specific latent class choice models (LCCM) are developed to estimate the probability of a student choosing a specific level of service related to bus and minibus taxi. Utilities are estimated in the form of multinomial logit models that are group (class) specific. An unlabelled d-optimal survey is developed based on observation and literature. Distributed at the North West University’s Mahikeng site of delivery, the survey had 121 properly completed responses of 150 printed copies, only 81 surveys were used in the study. Results Three findings are made. The theory of planned behaviour ratings indicate that students are much more favourable to minibus taxi use than bus use. Behavioural latent classes for intention and perceived behavioural control are distinct from the base model. The latent variable model reveals that students are willing to pay to avoid using bus and maintaining their current dispositions towards it. The relationship between intention and perceived behavioural control in the public transport context implies that control over a behaviour is a prerequisite to intention. Through this argument, three behavioural segments that are consistent with literature and theory were identified: choice users (neutral intention and high control), captive users(low control and low intention), and public transport lifestyle users (high intention and neutral control). Further research is needed to validate these relationships. Conclusions and recommendations The study accepts both null hypotheses based on the findings that there are class specific level of service preferences, and the behavioural dispositions within these classes are unique. It is recommended that the Learner Transport Policy be expanded to include university student mobility, and that higher education institutions in SA need to manage student travel demand. The main limitations in this study is the insignificance of demographic variables, potentially due to the homogeneity of the sample.

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