Improving Arctic Weather and Seasonal Climate Prediction: Recommendations for Future Forecast Systems Evolution from the European Project APPLICATE

Ortega, Pablo [Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain] Blockley, Edward W. [Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom] Køltzow, Morten [Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway] Massonnet, François [UCL] Sandu, Irina [European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom] Svensson, Gunilla [Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden] Acosta Navarro, Juan C. Arduini, Gabriele [European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom] Batté, Lauriane [CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France] Bazile, Eric [CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France] Chevallier, Matthieu [Météo-France, Toulouse, France] Cruz-García, Rubén [Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain] Day, Jonathan J. [European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom] Fichefet, Thierry [UCL] Flocco, Daniela [National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom] Gupta, Mukesh [UCL] Hartung, Kerstin [Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden] Hawkins, Ed [National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom] Hinrichs, Claudia [Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany] Magnusson, Linus [European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom] Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo [Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain] Pérez-Montero, Sergio [Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain] Ponsoni, Leandro [UCL] Semmler, Tido [Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany] Smith, Doug [Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom] Sterlin, Jean [UCL] Tjernström, Michael [Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden] Välisuo, Ilona [CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France] Jung, Thomas [Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, and Department of Physics and Electrical Engineering, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany] et al.[show all]

The Arctic environment is changing, increasing the vulnerability of local communities and ecosystems, and impacting its socio-economic landscape. In this context, weather and climate prediction systems can be powerful tools to support strategic planning and decision-making at different time horizons. This article presents several success stories from the H2020 project APPLICATE on how to advance Arctic weather and seasonal climate prediction, synthesizing the key lessons learned throughout the project and p roviding recommendations for future model and forecast system development.