User menu

Accès à distance ? S'identifier sur le proxy UCLouvain

A spline-based time-varying reproduction number for modelling epidemiological outbreaks

Primary tabs

download
  • Open access
  • PDF
  • 3.02 M
Pircalabelu, Eugen [UCL]

We develop in this manuscript a method for performing estimation and inference for the reproduction number of an epidemiological outbreak, focusing on the COVID-19 epidemic. The estimator is time-dependent and uses spline modelling to adapt to changes in the outbreak. This is accomplished by directly modelling the series of new infections as a function of time and subsequently using the derivative of the function to define a time-varying reproduction number, which is then used to assess the evolution of the epidemic for several countries.

Document type Article de périodique (Journal article) – Article de recherche
Access type Accès libre
Publication date 2023
Language Anglais
Journal information "Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics" - Vol. 72, no.3, p. 688-702 (2023)
Peer reviewed yes
Publisher Blackwell
issn 0035-9254
e-issn 1467-9876
Publication status Publié
Affiliation UCL - SSH/LIDAM/ISBA - Institut de Statistique, Biostatistique et Sciences Actuarielles
Keywords COVID-19 ; reproduction number ; spline modelling ; time dependency
Links
Bibliographic reference Pircalabelu, Eugen. A spline-based time-varying reproduction number for modelling epidemiological outbreaks. In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics, Vol. 72, no.3, p. 688-702 (2023)
Permanent URL http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/276499