Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [United Nations (1992) http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/ convkp/conveng.pdf. Accessed February 9, 2009] commits signatory nations to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that "would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system.'' In an effort to provide some insight into impacts of climate change that might be considered DAI, authors of the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identified 5 "`reasons for concern'' (RFCs). Relationships between various impacts reflected in each RFC and increases in global mean temperature (GMT) were portrayed in what has come to be called the "burning embers diagram.'' In presenting the "embers'' in the TAR, IPCC authors did not assess whether any single RFC was more important than any other; nor did they conclude what level of impacts or what atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases would constitute DAI, a value judgment that would be policy prescriptive. Here, we describe revisions of the sensitivities of the RFCs to increases in GMT and a more thorough understanding of the concept of vulnerability that has evolved over the past 8 years. This is based on our expert judgment about new findings in the growing literature since the publication of the TAR in 2001, including literature that was assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), as well as additional research published since AR4. Compared with results reported in the TAR, smaller increases in GMT are now estimated to lead to significant or substantial consequences in the framework of the 5 "reasons for concern.''
Rahmstorf S., Cazenave A., Church J. A., Hansen J. E., Keeling R. F., Parker D. E., Somerville R. C. J., Recent Climate Observations Compared to Projections, 10.1126/science.1136843
Lenton T. M., Held H., Kriegler E., Hall J. W., Lucht W., Rahmstorf S., Schellnhuber H. J., Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system, 10.1073/pnas.0705414105
Wolfe Jason, Hill Dan N, Pahlavan Sohrab, Drew Patrick J, Kleinfeld David, Feldman Daniel E, Texture Coding in the Rat Whisker System: Slip-Stick Versus Differential Resonance, 10.1371/journal.pbio.0060215
Lesser M. P., Coral reef bleaching and global climate change: Can corals survive the next century?, 10.1073/pnas.0700910104
Kurz W. A., Dymond C. C., Stinson G., Rampley G. J., Neilson E. T., Carroll A. L., Ebata T., Safranyik L., Mountain pine beetle and forest carbon feedback to climate change, 10.1038/nature06777
Schär Christoph, Vidale Pier Luigi, Lüthi Daniel, Frei Christoph, Häberli Christian, Liniger Mark A., Appenzeller Christof, The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves, 10.1038/nature02300
Nordhaus W. D., Geography and macroeconomics: New data and new findings, 10.1073/pnas.0509842103
RESOUR ENERGY ECON, 27, 1 (2005)
Mote Thomas L., Greenland surface melt trends 1973–2007: Evidence of a large increase in 2007, 10.1029/2007gl031976
Pfeffer W. T., Harper J. T., O'Neel S., Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21st-Century Sea-Level Rise, 10.1126/science.1159099
Rohling E. J., Grant K., Hemleben Ch., Siddall M., Hoogakker B. A. A., Bolshaw M., Kucera M., High rates of sea-level rise during the last interglacial period, 10.1038/ngeo.2007.28
Matthews H. Damon, Keith David W., Carbon-cycle feedbacks increase the likelihood of a warmer future : CARBON-CYCLE FEEDBACKS AND WARMING, 10.1029/2006gl028685
Luterbacher J., European Seasonal and Annual Temperature Variability, Trends, and Extremes Since 1500, 10.1126/science.1093877
Rosenzweig Cynthia, Tubiello Francesco N, Goldberg Richard, Mills Evan, Bloomfield Janine, Increased crop damage in the US from excess precipitation under climate change, 10.1016/s0959-3780(02)00008-0
Bibliographic reference
Smith, Joel B. ; Schneider, Stephen H. ; Oppenheimer, Michael ; Yohe, Gary W. ; Hare, William ; et. al. Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) "reasons for concern''. In: Proceedings of the National academy of sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 106, no. 11, p. 4133-4137 (2009)