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タイトル: | Estimates of the global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of diarrhoea in 195 countries: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 |
著者: | Troeger, Christopher Blacker, Brigette F Khalil, Ibrahim A Rao, Puja C Cao, Shujin Zimsen, Stephanie RM Albertson, Samuel B Stanaway, Jeffery D Deshpande, Aniruddha Abebe, Zegeye Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Amare, Azmeraw T Asgedom, Solomon W Anteneh, Zelalem Alamrew Antonio, Carl Abelardo T Aremu, Olatunde Asfaw, Ephrem Tsegay Atey, Tesfay Mehari Atique, Suleman Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G Arthur Awasthi, Ashish Ayele, Henok Tadesse Barac, Aleksandra Barreto, Mauricio L Bassat, Quique Belay, Saba Abraham Bensenor, Isabela M Bhutta, Zulfiqar A Bijani, Ali Bizuneh, Hailemichael Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A Dadi, Abel Fekadu Dandona, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Do, Huyen Phuc Dubey, Manisha Dubljanin, Eleonora Edessa, Dumessa Endries, Aman Yesuf Eshrati, Babak Farag, Tamer Feyissa, Garumma Tolu Foreman, Kyle J Forouzanfar, Mohammad H Fullman, Nancy Gething, Peter W Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo Godwin, William W Gugnani, Harish Chander Gupta, Rahul Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa Hassen, Hamid Yimam Hibstu, Desalegn Tsegaw Ilesanmi, Olayinka S Jonas, Jost B Kahsay, Amaha Kang, Gagandeep Kasaeian, Amir Khader, Yousef Saleh Khalil, Ibrahim A Khan, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Muhammad Ali Khang, Young-Ho Kissoon, Niranjan Kochhar, Sonali Kotloff, Karen L Koyanagi, Ai Kumar, G Anil Magdy Abd El Razek, Hassan Malekzadeh, Reza Malta, Deborah Carvalho Mehata, Suresh Mendoza, Walter Mengistu, Desalegn Tadese Menota, Bereket Gebremichael Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane Mlashu, Fitsum Weldegebreal Murthy, Srinivas Naik, Gurudatta A Nguyen, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Trang Huyen Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini Ogbo, Felix Akpojene Olagunju, Andrew Toyin Paudel, Deepak Platts-Mills, James A Qorbani, Mostafa Rafay, Anwar Rai, Rajesh Kumar Rana, Saleem M Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal Rasella, Davide Ray, Sarah E Reis, Cesar Renzaho, Andre MN Rezai, Mohammad Sadegh Ruhago, George Mugambage Safiri, Saeid Salomon, Joshua A Sanabria, Juan Ramon Sartorius, Benn Sawhney, Monika Sepanlou, Sadaf G Shigematsu, Mika Sisay, Mekonnen Somayaji, Ranjani Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T Sykes, Bryan L Taffere, Getachew Redae Topor-Madry, Roman Tran, Bach Xuan Tuem, Kald Beshir Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna Vollset, Stein Emil Walson, Judd L Weaver, Marcia R Weldegwergs, Kidu Gidey Werdecker, Andrea Workicho, Abdulhalik Yenesew, Muluken Yirsaw, Biruck Desalegn Yonemoto, Naohiro El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa Vos, Theo Lim, Stephen S Naghavi, Mohsen Murray, Christopher JL Mokdad, Ali H Hay, Simon I Reiner, Robert C |
著者名の別形: | 米本, 直裕 |
発行日: | Nov-2018 |
出版者: | Elsevier BV |
誌名: | The Lancet Infectious Diseases |
巻: | 18 |
号: | 11 |
開始ページ: | 1211 |
終了ページ: | 1228 |
抄録: | [Background] The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of diarrhoea in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies in 1990–2016 and assesses how the burden of diarrhoea has changed in people of all ages. [Methods] We modelled diarrhoea mortality with a Bayesian hierarchical modelling platform that evaluates a wide range of covariates and model types on the basis of vital registration and verbal autopsy data. We modelled diarrhoea incidence with a compartmental meta-regression tool that enforces an association between incidence and prevalence, and relies on scientific literature, population representative surveys, and health-care data. Diarrhoea deaths and episodes were attributed to 13 pathogens by use of a counterfactual population attributable fraction approach. Diarrhoea risk factors are also based on counterfactual estimates of risk exposure and the association between the risk and diarrhoea. Each modelled estimate accounted for uncertainty. [Findings] In 2016, diarrhoea was the eighth leading cause of death among all ages (1 655 944 deaths, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1 244 073–2 366 552) and the fifth leading cause of death among children younger than 5 years (446 000 deaths, 390 894–504 613). Rotavirus was the leading aetiology for diarrhoea mortality among children younger than 5 years (128 515 deaths, 105 138–155 133) and among all ages (228 047 deaths, 183 526–292 737). Childhood wasting (low weight-for-height score), unsafe water, and unsafe sanitation were the leading risk factors for diarrhoea, responsible for 80·4% (95% UI 68·2–85·0), 72·1% (34·0–91·4), and 56·4% (49·3–62·7) of diarrhoea deaths in children younger than 5 years, respectively. Prevention of wasting in 1762 children (95% UI 1521–2170) could avert one death from diarrhoea. [Interpretation] Substantial progress has been made globally in reducing the burden of diarrhoeal diseases, driven by decreases in several primary risk factors. However, this reduction has not been equal across locations, and burden among adults older than 70 years requires attention. [Findings] Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. |
著作権等: | © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2433/235007 |
DOI(出版社版): | 10.1016/S1473-3099(18)30362-1 |
PubMed ID: | 30243583 |
出現コレクション: | 学術雑誌掲載論文等 |
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