Impact of the Euro 2020 championship on the spread of COVID-19

Dehning, Jonas; Mohr, Sebastian B.; Contreras, Sebastian; Dönges, Philipp; Iftekhar, Emil N.; Schulz, Oliver; Bechtle, Philip; Priesemann, Viola

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-35512-x

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学術論文

Impact of the Euro 2020 championship on the spread of COVID-19

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Dehning, Jonas
Max Planck Research Group Neural Systems Theory, Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons250716

Mohr, Sebastian B.
Max Planck Research Group Neural Systems Theory, Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons250710

Contreras, Sebastian
Max Planck Research Group Neural Systems Theory, Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons208616

Dönges, Philipp
Max Planck Research Group Neural Systems Theory, Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons264162

Iftekhar, Emil N.
Max Planck Research Group Neural Systems Theory, Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons173619

Priesemann, Viola
Max Planck Research Group Neural Systems Theory, Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Max Planck Society;

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s41467-022-35512-x.pdf
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引用

Dehning, J., Mohr, S. B., Contreras, S., Dönges, P., Iftekhar, E. N., Schulz, O., Bechtle, P., & Priesemann, V. (2023). Impact of the Euro 2020 championship on the spread of COVID-19. Nature Communications, 14:. doi:10.1038/s41467-022-35512-x.

引用: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000C-6F5B-3

要旨

Large-scale events like the UEFA Euro 2020 football (soccer) championship offer a unique opportunity to quantify the impact of gatherings on the spread of COVID-19, as the number and dates of matches played by participating countries resembles a randomized study. Using Bayesian modeling and the gender imbalance in COVID-19 data, we attribute 840,000 (95% CI: [0.39M, 1.26M]) COVID-19 cases across 12 countries to the championship. The impact depends non-linearly on the initial incidence, the reproduction number R, and the number of matches played. The strongest effects are seen in Scotland and England, where as much as 10,000 primary cases per million inhabitants occur from championship-related gatherings. The average match-induced increase in R was 0.46 [0.18, 0.75] on match days, but important matches caused an increase as large as +3. Altogether, our results provide quantitative insights that help judge and mitigate the impact of large-scale events on pandemic spread.