crop model ensemble; global food security Supplementary material for this article is available online; radiation use efficiency; wheat potential yield; yield increase; Crop model ensemble; Crop modeling; Global food security; Global food security supplementary material for this article be available online; Model ensembles; Radiation use efficiency; Wheat potential yield; Wheat production; Yield increase; Yield potential; Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment; Environmental Science (all); Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health; General Environmental Science
Abstract :
[en] Wheat is the most widely grown food crop, with 761 Mt produced globally in 2020. To meet the expected grain demand by mid-century, wheat breeding strategies must continue to improve upon yield-advancing physiological traits, regardless of climate change impacts. Here, the best performing doubled haploid (DH) crosses with an increased canopy photosynthesis from wheat field experiments in the literature were extrapolated to the global scale with a multi-model ensemble of process-based wheat crop models to estimate global wheat production. The DH field experiments were also used to determine a quantitative relationship between wheat production and solar radiation to estimate genetic yield potential. The multi-model ensemble projected a global annual wheat production of 1050 ± 145 Mt due to the improved canopy photosynthesis, a 37% increase, without expanding cropping area. Achieving this genetic yield potential would meet the lower estimate of the projected grain demand in 2050, albeit with considerable challenges.
Disciplines :
Agriculture & agronomy
Author, co-author :
Guarin, Jose Rafael ; Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, United States
Ewert, Frank; Institute of Crop Science, Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany ; Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany
Webber, Heidi; Institute of Crop Science, Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany ; Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany
Calderini, Daniel; Institute of Plant Production and Protection, Austral University of Chile, Valdivia, Chile
Reynolds, Matthew; International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Mexico, Mexico
Molero, Gemma; KWS, Lille, France
Miralles, Daniel; Department of Plant Production, University of Buenos Aires, IFEVA-CONICET, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Garcia, Guillermo; Department of Plant Production, University of Buenos Aires, IFEVA-CONICET, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Slafer, Gustavo; Department of Crop and Forest Sciences, University of Lleida—AGROTECNIO-CERCA Center, Lleida, Spain ; ICREA, Catalonian Institution for Research and Advanced Studies, Barcelona, Spain
Giunta, Francesco; Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Sassari, Sassari, Italy
Pequeno, Diego N.L.; International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Mexico, Mexico
Stella, Tommaso; Institute of Crop Science, Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany ; Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany
Ahmed, Mukhtar ; Department of Agronomy, Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan ; Department of Agricultural Research for Northern Sweden, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Umeå, Sweden
Alderman, Phillip D.; Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, United States
Basso, Bruno ; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, United States ; W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University, East Lansing, United States
Berger, Andres G.; National Institute of Agricultural Research (INIA), Colonia, Uruguay
Bindi, Marco; Department of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry (DAGRI), Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences (DISPAA), University of Florence, Florence, Italy
Bracho-Mujica, Gennady; Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
Cammarano, Davide; Department of Agronomy, Purdue University, West Lafayette, United States
Chen, Yi; Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, China
Dumont, Benjamin ; Université de Liège - ULiège > TERRA Research Centre > Plant Sciences
Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi ; Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany
Fereres, Elias; IAS-CSIC DAUCO, University of Cordoba, Cordoba, Spain
Ferrise, Roberto; Department of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry (DAGRI), Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences (DISPAA), University of Florence, Florence, Italy
Gaiser, Thomas ; Institute of Crop Science, Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
Gao, Yujing; Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, United States
Garcia-Vila, Margarita ; IAS-CSIC DAUCO, University of Cordoba, Cordoba, Spain
Gayler, Sebastian ; Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
Hochman, Zvi ; CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Brisbane, Australia
Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, United States ; Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, University of Florida, Gainesville, United States
Hunt, Leslie A.; Department of Plant Agriculture, University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada
Kersebaum, Kurt C.; Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany ; Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany ; Global Change Research Institute Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Brno, Czech Republic
Nendel, Claas ; Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany ; Global Change Research Institute Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Brno, Czech Republic ; Institute of Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Olesen, Jørgen E.; Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Tjele, Denmark
Palosuo, Taru; Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland
Priesack, Eckart; Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
Pullens, Johannes W.M.; Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Tjele, Denmark
Rodríguez, Alfredo; CEIGRAM, Technic University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain ; Department of Economic Analysis and Finances, University of Castilla-La Mancha, Toledo, Spain
Rötter, Reimund P.; Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany ; Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
Ramos, Margarita Ruiz; CEIGRAM, Technic University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Semenov, Mikhail A.; Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, United Kingdom
Senapati, Nimai ; Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, United Kingdom
Siebert, Stefan ; Department of Crop Sciences, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
Srivastava, Amit Kumar; Institute of Crop Science, Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
Stöckle, Claudio; Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, United States
Supit, Iwan; Water & Food and Water Systems & Global Change Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands
Tao, Fulu; Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, China ; Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland
Thorburn, Peter; CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Brisbane, Australia
Wang, Enli; CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Canberra, Australia
Weber, Tobias Karl David; Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
Xiao, Liujun; College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China ; National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China
Zhang, Zhao ; State Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
Zhao, Chuang ; College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
Zhao, Jin; Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Tjele, Denmark ; College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
Zhao, Zhigan; CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Canberra, Australia ; Department of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
Zhu, Yan; National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China
Asseng, Senthold; Department of Life Science Engineering, Digital Agriculture, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany
AgMIP - Wheat Chilean Technical and Scientific Research Council (CONICYT) FONDECYT Project
Funders :
Ministry of Education Youth and Sports [CZ] BBSRC - Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council [GB] NSCF - National Natural Science Foundation of China [CN] CONICYT - National Commission for Scientific and Technological Research [CL] CIMMYT - International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center [MX]
Funding text :
This study was a part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Phase 4. The study was supported by the International Wheat Yield Partnership (IWYP, Grant IWYP115) and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT). Experiments carried out in Valdivia (Chile) were funded by IWYP, CIMMYT (Mexico), and the Chilean Technical and Scientific Research Council (CONICYT) by FONDECYT Project 1141048. The experimental work conducted at Valdivia by Dr Jaime Herrera (UACh) is appreciated. F T was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Project Nos. 31761143006 and 41571493). K C K was supported by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of Czech Republic through SustEs (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/000797). Rothamsted Research receives support from the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) through Designing Future Wheat (BB/P016855/1) and Achieving Sustainable Agricultural Systems (NE/N018125/1). International Wheat Yield Partnership
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