Abstract:
Due to the COVID-19 outbreak, the Chinese government implemented nationwide traffic restrictions and self-quarantine measures from January 23 to April 8 (in Wuhan), 2020. We estimated how these measures impacted ambient air pollution and the subsequent consequences on health and the health-related economy in 367 Chinese cities. A random forests modeling was used to predict the business-as-usual air pollution concentrations in 2020, after adjusting for the impact of long-term trend and weather conditions. We calculated changes in mortality attributable to reductions in air pollution in early 2020 and health-related economic benefits based on the value of statistical life (VSL). Compared with the business-as-usual scenario, we estimated 1239 (95% CI: 844-1578) PM<sub>2.5</sub>-related deaths were avoided, as were 2777 (95% CI: 1565-3995) PM<sub>10</sub>-related deaths, 1587 (95% CI: 98-3104) CO-related deaths, 4711 (95% CI: 3649-5781) NO<sub>2</sub>-related deaths, 215 (95% CI: 116-314) O<sub>3</sub>-related deaths, and 1088 (95% CI: 774-1421) SO<sub>2</sub>-related deaths. Based on the reduction in deaths, economic benefits for in PM<sub>2.5</sub>, PM<sub>10</sub>, CO, NO<sub>2</sub>, O<sub>3</sub>, and SO<sub>2</sub> were 1.22, 2.60, 1.36, 4.05, 0.20, and 0.95 billion USD, respectively. Our findings demonstrate the substantial benefits in human health and health-related costs due to improved urban air quality during the COVID lockdown period in China in early 2020.
